I think Donald Trump is going to win re-election. And without anything more than the normal amount of American electoral funny business. Reasons as follows:
- If the pandemic was going to win this election for the democrats, they would be looking at a bigger lead than where they're sitting now. Current polling looks an awful lot like the Clinton campaign's polling
- The democrats are running almost the exact same campaign they ran with Hillary Clinton: no ideas, no policy proposals to put out the dumpster fire, nothing to address economic insecurity (which is why Trump's racist scapegoating works in the first place), running against popular ideas like Medicare for all, no reason Joe Biden should be president, just Trump = bad. They're trying to win the middle class suburbs where Trump won last time...with no ideas or policy proposals, just the same fear mongering about Trump, again.
- There is an active, progressive base - and the democrats took a shit on them. First by forcing shitty MBNA Joe down everyone's throats, then by putting a shitty tough on crime prosecutor as the VP, then holding a convention where the prime speaking slots went to republicans. They're going to see the same things they saw with the Clinton campaign; young people aren't going to vote, black voter turnout is going to be down, etc.
- The media can't stop talking about Trump - just like last election. And Joe Biden is mostly invisible, also like last election.
Anyway, I'm just getting my prediction out there. I ultimately don't think it matters that much: one guy has his finger prints all over every shitty piece of legislation passed in my lifetime, from free trade deals that undermined the American working class to the patriot act to the Clinton crime bill and has been a fantastic instrument for oligarchy & fascism, while the other guy is a wannabe strong-man fascist, but isn't really capable enough to pull it off.
I do think the US is going to decay into even scarier fascism, but I think this is just a precursor. I don't think Trump is the guy who pulls it off. I'm also conflicted - I don't know who is going to accelerate things more rapidly. I think a Biden presidency might be worse in some respects. His administration will go after left-wing protestors just as hard as Trump will, but the media will give them a pass. Just like Obama got a pass on tons of things (not prosecuting any of the bad actors in the financial crises, drone assassinations (including those of US citizens), similarly cruel border policies (just didn't publicly delight in them), etc. And all of the "liberals" are going to think everything is ok just because Trump is gone.
Presidential Prediction